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New analysis suggests that by the middle of this century many routes across and around the Arctic Ocean that are now partially blocked by ice will open during summer months, allowing the passage of ships. On the other hand, due to the rise in temperature, some parts of Arctic ground accessible in winter via ice roads will become unreachable by land.

This study has only reinforced suspicions long held by scientists who predicted that this would be one of the effects of Global Warming. To better explain this analysis the group of researchers at the University of California, USA, further clarified some aspects to the problem. If sea ice is more than 1.2 metres thick, than ships with limited ice-breaking ability (also called Type A ships) can´t advance. By the middle of this century, almost 4.2 million square kilometers of Arctic Ocean now clogged with sea ice will be ice-free from July to September. This will enable a rapid passage along several potentially lucrative Arctic routes. A good example that describes this situation is the route from Rotterdam northward through the North Sea, across the Arctic Ocean, and southward through the Bering Strait to Yokohama (Japan) that is 40% shorter than the warm-water corridor that connects the two cities through the Suez Canal. Researchers estimate that the route could be completed in only 11 days, instead of the many weeks nowadays.

It’s good news for freight companies and businesses using the sea corridors during summer months but a terrible result for the land routes. With warmer temperatures, the temporary roads built across frozen ground and bodies of water may not support the weight of supply trucks. The steady transit of vehicles loaded with equipment and supplies is vital to the mining, energy exploration and timber industries. 

If the latter becomes true, by 2050 inland regions of the Arctic (most of them within Canada and Russia) in a grand total of 1.2 square kilometers will be completely inaccessible by vehicles weighing more than your average car. This will render the supply of some operations too costly to be viable. Without the winter roads, supplies would have to be airlifted or shipped via slow ferries.